It's not like the government and the private sector will be able to restore manufacturing quickly. The process will take a while and will cost.
I doubt most people will tolerate a longer-term downturn in the hope that a bunch of manufacturing will materialize. And I doubt that companies will want to do that. They moved manufacturing overseas to cut costs and get around labour.
As for lower prices, I doubt that'll happen either.
Yeah, there's a whole lot of open questions, beyond just is this even what he's trying to do in the first place (which is questionable since he can be known to hide his true intentions).
1. Does he have the time. There's two options for solving the time problem.
1. He has to convince, probably Democrats that this is the right solution. One way to do this would be to get far enough down the path that undoing it seems crazy, either because undoing it is more expensive or undoing it is politically untenebale, but really he has to convince everyone, because he has to convince business that want to make the capitol investment they won't lose cash if trade barriers are lifted in 2-4 years.
2. He does become a dictator(which he would have to live long enough to see this plan to fruition), he goes really harsh on tariffs, and makes the obvious case. But this still may not even work, because he would have to convince businesses making the capitol investment he would live long enough and stay in power long enough for this to all happen. What would that take 10 years? Maybe 20?
2. This has to go basically against market demands which for the most part in the US is cheap cheap cheap. Look at fast food, the rise of fast fashion, are people really by and large bought into the idea "it's ok if things cost more, because it's better for America / People who work in manufacturing get paid more". American's by and large I think are not good at doing things "for the greater good" and we're not in a "do things for the greater good moment"
Also, it'll only meaningfully push down prices if labor prices plummet. Just building more factories won't do it.
Typically, when you see MIUSA items now, they're high-quality, because it doesn't make sense to use expensive labor while cutting lots of corners on process and cheaping out on materials when your finished good will still be expensive, only a little cheaper than making something high-quality, due to labor costs. This holds for most other developed-world manufacturing, too, and is the biggest reason that "made in [name of developed country]" is one of the more reliable high-level signals of quality—simply because it's rarely a good business idea to manufacture poor products at developed-world labor prices.
We can't compete at the lower end of prices & quality without cutting US labor pay rates a whole bunch.
I've done truly shit jobs for truly shit pay. The only offending part about it are housing and food prices.
If, by comparison, i owned a bunch of slaves i would make sure they do profitable work but i would also make sure they have a bed and something to eat. There is nothing interesting about denying them this.
Many underestimate how thoughtless and careless people get if ends dont meet. If any thought makes you angry you will find ways not to.
It is fairly easy to switch to chinese salaries, can go even lower. Just make it so that life doesnt suck. A good life is also in the cards.
Tariffs only work to protect already existing industries. The asinine way Trump has implemented tariffs, in the hopes of spurring American manufacturing, will never work as intended. To wit, the new manufacturers know all they have to do is be priced slightly below their tariffed competitors' price. This strategy maximizes their profit, which fulfills the business' obligation to their shareholders. But it also sets things up that the tariff can never be repealed without facing a lot of political backlash because of the American jobs that will be lost. The loser in all this is the consumer, who only sees prices go up, quite significantly at that, and will never come back down.
I can't state more emphatically how utterly stupid Trump's tariffs are.
The downturn, and it will be dramatic, will affect Americans now. Restoring manufacturing will take years, and when manufacturing comes back to America, if it comes back, it will be replete with a lot of automation and providing very few jobs.
Only an idiot would tolerate this bet for longer than a couple of lost pay periods. In other words, Trump is losing this bet, bigly.
The numbers aren't difficult to see. Biden's worst day for S&P was -5.5% from his first day in office. Today, Trump's second term is down -8.7%. He has steep ground to make up if he wants his 8 years to compare to Joe Biden's 4. Tesla's loss alone is $621 B. All Federal spending is $44,400 per taxpayer, so Tesla's capitalization leaving the market is significant at over $4000 per taxpayer.
It's not like the government and the private sector will be able to restore manufacturing quickly. The process will take a while and will cost.
I doubt most people will tolerate a longer-term downturn in the hope that a bunch of manufacturing will materialize. And I doubt that companies will want to do that. They moved manufacturing overseas to cut costs and get around labour.
As for lower prices, I doubt that'll happen either.
Yeah, there's a whole lot of open questions, beyond just is this even what he's trying to do in the first place (which is questionable since he can be known to hide his true intentions).
1. Does he have the time. There's two options for solving the time problem. 1. He has to convince, probably Democrats that this is the right solution. One way to do this would be to get far enough down the path that undoing it seems crazy, either because undoing it is more expensive or undoing it is politically untenebale, but really he has to convince everyone, because he has to convince business that want to make the capitol investment they won't lose cash if trade barriers are lifted in 2-4 years. 2. He does become a dictator(which he would have to live long enough to see this plan to fruition), he goes really harsh on tariffs, and makes the obvious case. But this still may not even work, because he would have to convince businesses making the capitol investment he would live long enough and stay in power long enough for this to all happen. What would that take 10 years? Maybe 20?
2. This has to go basically against market demands which for the most part in the US is cheap cheap cheap. Look at fast food, the rise of fast fashion, are people really by and large bought into the idea "it's ok if things cost more, because it's better for America / People who work in manufacturing get paid more". American's by and large I think are not good at doing things "for the greater good" and we're not in a "do things for the greater good moment"
Is there are reason to think suddenly a bunch of manufacturing pops up and pushes prices down?
I’m not convinced there’s any real strategy here.
Also, it'll only meaningfully push down prices if labor prices plummet. Just building more factories won't do it.
Typically, when you see MIUSA items now, they're high-quality, because it doesn't make sense to use expensive labor while cutting lots of corners on process and cheaping out on materials when your finished good will still be expensive, only a little cheaper than making something high-quality, due to labor costs. This holds for most other developed-world manufacturing, too, and is the biggest reason that "made in [name of developed country]" is one of the more reliable high-level signals of quality—simply because it's rarely a good business idea to manufacture poor products at developed-world labor prices.
We can't compete at the lower end of prices & quality without cutting US labor pay rates a whole bunch.
Prices stay down if you pay the worker like Chinese labor. Which would fit what manufacturers desire, Henry Ford is long dead.
I've done truly shit jobs for truly shit pay. The only offending part about it are housing and food prices.
If, by comparison, i owned a bunch of slaves i would make sure they do profitable work but i would also make sure they have a bed and something to eat. There is nothing interesting about denying them this.
Many underestimate how thoughtless and careless people get if ends dont meet. If any thought makes you angry you will find ways not to.
It is fairly easy to switch to chinese salaries, can go even lower. Just make it so that life doesnt suck. A good life is also in the cards.
Tariffs only work to protect already existing industries. The asinine way Trump has implemented tariffs, in the hopes of spurring American manufacturing, will never work as intended. To wit, the new manufacturers know all they have to do is be priced slightly below their tariffed competitors' price. This strategy maximizes their profit, which fulfills the business' obligation to their shareholders. But it also sets things up that the tariff can never be repealed without facing a lot of political backlash because of the American jobs that will be lost. The loser in all this is the consumer, who only sees prices go up, quite significantly at that, and will never come back down.
I can't state more emphatically how utterly stupid Trump's tariffs are.
The SDGs have Goals, Targets, and Indicators.
What are the goals for domestic manufacturing?
FRED series tagged "Manufacturing" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=manufacturing
"Manufacturers' New Orders: Total Manufacturing (AMTMNO)" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AMTMNO
It's worth remembering that he's betting with our money, not his own.
(Even if he likes to imagine it's already his.)
The downturn, and it will be dramatic, will affect Americans now. Restoring manufacturing will take years, and when manufacturing comes back to America, if it comes back, it will be replete with a lot of automation and providing very few jobs.
Only an idiot would tolerate this bet for longer than a couple of lost pay periods. In other words, Trump is losing this bet, bigly.
The numbers aren't difficult to see. Biden's worst day for S&P was -5.5% from his first day in office. Today, Trump's second term is down -8.7%. He has steep ground to make up if he wants his 8 years to compare to Joe Biden's 4. Tesla's loss alone is $621 B. All Federal spending is $44,400 per taxpayer, so Tesla's capitalization leaving the market is significant at over $4000 per taxpayer.
https://www.reuters.com/data/tracking-trumps-economy-2025-01...